Re: GFDL knows something
Posted by Will_TX on 8/22/2011, 7:11 pm
Here is what the 6AM Charleston NWS talked about this morning regarding the surface low and the Ridge:

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGHING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
RESULTING IN PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND SEABREEZE OVER
SOUTHERN MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.

CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE ENHANCED
AS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH 90 DEGREES OVER INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE IRENE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A SFC
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE AND NHC
FORECASTS KEEP HURRICANE IRENE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY AID IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE AN EASTWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT ONSHORE AND CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.-- End Changed Discussion --

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GFDL knows something - CAPECHASE, 8/22/2011, 5:39 pm
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