Re: GFDL knows something
Posted by
Will_TX on 8/22/2011, 7:11 pm
Here is what the 6AM Charleston NWS talked about this morning regarding the surface low and the Ridge:
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK MID/UPPER LVL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING AROUND 90 DEGREES AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE CWA. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND SEABREEZE OVER SOUTHERN MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR BEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE ENHANCED AS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S OVER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH 90 DEGREES OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE IRENE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A SFC TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE AND NHC FORECASTS KEEP HURRICANE IRENE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY AID IN SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE AN EASTWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ONSHORE AND CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.-- End Changed Discussion --
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In this thread:
GFDL knows something -
CAPECHASE,
8/22/2011, 5:39 pm- Re: GFDL knows something - LawKat, 8/22/2011, 9:32 pm
- Re: GFDL knows something - Will_TX, 8/22/2011, 7:11 pm
- Re: GFDL knows something - Stormexpert2010, 8/22/2011, 5:53 pm
- Re: GFDL knows something - beachman80, 8/22/2011, 5:47 pm
- Re: GFDL knows something - CAPECHASE, 8/22/2011, 5:43 pm
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