Here is another reply I found if you are interested James, it is interesting as well:
In answering the question as to why so many balloon observations being done, the NHC, nor NOAA have a good handle on what the upper levels of the atmosphere are like, what is going on with the jet stream, and both highs. They are going to take all the data that they are getting and pump them into the models and see what comes back. The 5PM discussion is an interesting read, and I caught a bit of concern in "reading between the lines" as to when the storm is going to turn. Note the comment about the GFDL, which is one of the better models and why it has stayed an outlier. Could it be an anomaly in the data or does the model see something that the other don't catch. Again, 4 to 5 days out on the models is a crap shoot. What also has them concerned is that you are going to have a major cat 3 storm menacing the eastern coast of the US and it could have an impact in the heavily populated north east, and trust me, they are nowhere near prepared for a major storm up there.
As for a Florida landfall, heck, I don't know, I have not seen any birds in my neighborhood in the last two days, and this morning it was dead quiet when I got the paper at 6:45AM. Usually you hear a bunch of our feathered friends singing up a storm, but not since Saturday have I heard anything.
Just my thoughts and observations.
Update from another site. Some of the models that have been east are now shifting west again, like the HWRF and GFS, so see you really can't rely on the models for more than 3 days out max.
As to the balloons request, here is the NOAA/NHC text request:
0730Z MON AUG 22 2011
THE National Hurricane Center IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.
THE 12Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH GOOD UPR AIR COVERAGE
INCLUDING 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...73 CONUS...10 MEXICAN AND 10
CARIBBEAN REPORTS...AS WELL AS ONE DROPSONDE REPORT AND 3 FLIGHT
LEVEL RECON REPORTS.
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