Irene and Hispaniola ...
Posted by
LawKat on 8/23/2011, 1:37 pm
Irene may have missed Hispaniola as far as actual landfall, but her relatively slow speed and the fact the her eastern quadrants are now drawing in dry air off of the slopes the mountains on Hispaniola is having a pronounced effect on the overall structure of Irene.
Any rapid intensification is going to continue to be stymied as long as Irene's east quadrants continue to be able to draw in dry air from the high altitudes of the DR mountainous terrain. The terrain also hinders overall storm circulation. In another 8-12 hours, Irene should be far enough away that her circulation is no longer disrupted and then intensification should begin.
Shear, even at a moderate 10-15 its has been enough to keep an open eye obscured under cirrus cover, and the storm tops down.
Overall, Irene is a solid cyclone and should begin to move as predicted. The trough is moving even slower than Irene, but in WV you can see the western edge of the ridge and the trough interaction. WNW to NW in the next 24 hours should be the order of the day.
A major hurricane by Thursday or late Wednesday should also be the order of the day. Because the western edge of the ridge is weak, the trough isn't particularly strong, and there is no pronounced dip to the jet stream, Irene will keep the US East Coast in her sights for a couple of of more days before we all get a clear picture of where she is heading, and she won't be heading there fast. |
187
In this thread:
Irene and Hispaniola ... - LawKat, 8/23/2011, 1:37 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.