Re: Recon image as of 8:30AM EDT on 8/24
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/24/2011, 9:13 am
My site displays the highest 30 second sustained flight level wind with the wind barbs in Google Earth. The HDOBs also have 10 second flight level wind gusts. Official advisories are supposed to be 1 minute sustained winds at the surface. When there is no SFMR, you have to estimate what it might be at the surface. Of course even when SFMR is available it is not a direct measurement but estimated. Additionally, the SFMR is 10 second gusts. The NHC often seems to use the 10 second flight level wind gusts and then a reduction factor from that, perhaps assuming that the plane did not sample the absolute highest wind, or use the 10 second SFMR even though advisories are supposed to be 1 minute sustained wind.

The highest wind at flight level was recorded exactly when the sonde I posted was released:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2011&storm=Irene&product=UZNT13&who=AF&mission=14&show=08-24-1142-06-969-121-81

You can see the HDOB where they released that here:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2011&storm=Irene&product=URNT15&who=AF&mission=14&show=08-24-113230-17--109-

And that is the highest wind noted in the vortex message.

I'm not exactly sure what part of it made them decided to go to 115mph, but it was probably about 90% of the flight level wind since they don't have SFMR on the Air Force flight at the moment.

There is a paper on reduction factors that is not loading for me at the moment, but when the site does load you should check it out:
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0434%282003%29018%3C0032%3AGDWPIH%3E2.0.CO%3B2
106
In this thread:
Irene now Cat 3--official - Gianmarc, 8/24/2011, 8:03 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.