Re: When do we start talking about Irene not making such a turn to the North?
Posted by TuffyE on 8/24/2011, 10:52 am
She came a little more west around Hisp but is back to just about her angle as she came off P.R... She is JUST starting a track that should change her LONG-RUN motion of about 298 since east of the islands because she is probably not coming back below 300 again. The models have come TO her and the HWF and GFD ones look pretty good right now but they are likely to prove a little too far east right now.  76-78 is about the norm for the turn to north and what the models anticipate right now.  I would expect her to push a little further NW given her size and development, which will make us here in SC think harder about her, but the turn N will come and likely have a quickly following NE along the line where our fronts have been stalling offshore.  This will make her the "normal" O.B. brush and "disappoint" those NYC watchers once again.  West into Miami, directly NW into SC, and north (or NW) into NYC have always been little more than hypothetical possibilities with this one.  The fact that they ARE/WERE possibilities and the importance of preparation because of the consequences of them does not affect the observed track or objective forecasts.  

As for the models, HWF has been all over this for the most part except for SLIGHTLY overdoing the westerly drift above PR and HISP.  The GFD LOVES an Atlantic High and has shown that bias west at low latitudes and is probably showing the recurve bias now that it will want to stick with. Like someone said about Emily, XTRAP has been THE best model for Irene since she made a little turn to the NW east of the islands.  There would have been very little error from that point to the overnight position.  Another almost 3 days of XTRAP and turn her over to GFD (and NOGAP) for the run to the NE.

Irene has been terribly consistent and predictable if you look at the STORM.  We and the models have all shown our biases and geocentricities and she has ignored them all to this point.  She hasn't been listening.
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When do we start talking about Irene not making such a turn to the North? - tracker, 8/24/2011, 9:30 am
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