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Posted by cypresstx on 8/26/2011, 4:55 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#IRENE DISCUSSION 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262049 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 33.4N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 35.5N 76.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 38.2N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 50.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1800Z 56.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 58.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI Hurricane IRENE Public Advisory US Watch/Warning Storm Surge Probs 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262047 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND... BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H... AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
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- oops - sry hanna n/t - cypresstx, 8/26/2011, 4:56 pm
- Re: oops - sry hanna n/t - hanna, 8/26/2011, 5:16 pm
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