Irene Post-Mortem -- Why isn't dry air able to be forecast well?
Posted by
weathercritic on 8/29/2011, 3:57 pm
For days, I recall reading NHC discussion after discussion that stated that the primary inhibiting factor of Irene's strength at northern latitudes would be cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs).
I do not recall reading regularly that dry air was expected to be an issue. I have seen this with countless storms in the past as well. It appears that the ingestion of dry air into a cyclone is either not well understood, or not accurately predicted. I wonder why that is, and whether you have any opinions as to why dry air is so poorly forecast with respect to tropical systems.
I mean let's face it, there is a likelihood for the presence of dry air just about anywhere, but in an environment in which the atmosphere is being "moistened up", what would explain how the dry air could build to such a level that it literally chokes the life out of the system?
This is one of those things that I don't understand well after a system has packed its bags and hit the road. What happened, why did it happen, and why was it not forecast to happen? |
241
In this thread:
Irene Post-Mortem -- Why isn't dry air able to be forecast well? - weathercritic, 8/29/2011, 3:57 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.