Re: next storm looks like a monster euro run
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2011, 4:07 am
Those are GFS ensemble members. AP01, AP02, AP03, etc.
"National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
The GEFS is an ensemble prediction system based on the GFS model. It consists of a low-resolution (approximately 105 km horizontal grid spacing with 28 vertical levels) control run of the GFS and 20 ensemble members at the same resolution. Uncertainties in the initial conditions are addressed by the use of a technique that generates different variations, or perturbations, in the initial states of each of the 20 member runs. Vortex relocation of TCs is applied to each member initial state, i.e., the starting locations of TCs are assumed to be well known and are therefore identical in the initial states of all ensemble members. The GEFS produces forecasts out to 16 days, four times per day. The mean of the 20-member ensemble forecasts is typically used as forecast guidance, however the individual ensemble runs can yield useful prognostic information as well. For instance, the variability of TC forecast tracks in the ensemble may provide insight on forecast uncertainty. It should be noted, however, that on average track forecasts produced by the GEFS have been less skillful than those produced by a multi-model consensus forecast. The GEFS can also be used for guidance on TC genesis. For instance, if a consensus of ensemble members predicts the formation of a TC, the forecaster may consider more seriously the prospect of TC development."
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
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