Re: Some models showing a Texas storm near the end of the period
Posted by
Will_TX on 8/30/2011, 9:32 am
This is the early morning discussion from the NWS, Houston/Galveston:
DISCUSSION...
THIS COULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY. MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 100S WITH UPPER 90S/LOW 100S TOMORROW.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MAY ALSO BE THE LAST DAY THAT MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE
TIED/BROKEN BUT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS AT OR BELOW RECORDS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT. OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS...THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THU. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS PROGGS WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY SO BACKED OFF ON POPS WED/WED NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE MUCH SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NAM DEEPENS THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990MB ON
THE 06Z RUN DURING THE DAY FRI WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK
DEPRESSION. THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS BUT
ARE SLOWER TO DO SO WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS.
SURPRISINGLY...NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PLAINS FRI AS WELL AS WHEN
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SAT/SUN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THU/FRI BUT THEN RETRACT BACK OVER
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RING A COLD FRONT INTO
TX ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TX COAST. TO SAY THE LEAST...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LARGELY DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS.
THE FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME AND KEPT MAINLY 30/40 POPS FOR
MUCH OF SE TX AND HAS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND THE
DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NOT BE DETERMINED UNTIL A TROPICAL SYSTEM
FORMS AND THE MODELS CAN FULLY RESOLVE IT.
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