Re: Hey jake, can you give us your thoughts on what might happen in the gulf this weekend or next we
Posted by
Jake on 8/31/2011, 5:21 pm
Stormlover,
Here's my thoughts on the gulf system or 93L. The overall structure of the cloud pattern is very disorganized, as most of the heavy convection is on the eastside of a broad area of low pressure in the SE gulf which is not very low 1009mb and not falling.
The system is under very strong westerly shear over 30kts. This should keep any convection from forming over the large weak surface circulation and remain weak for sometime. Current 850-700mb vortex is moderate, but decreases greatly at the 500mb level or mostly shallow and upper divergence is weak over the broad surface spin.
However, due to deep layer moisture across the gulf and shear enduced convection very slow development is possible the next few days. Shear will remain a negative factor, even though it will be moving over the warm waters of the gulf.
The future track is somewhat uncertain, as it could affect a large area with atleast tropical storm force winds and heavy rains across the northern gulf. If it remains shallow it will move more WNW, but if it becomes more vertical NNW- NNE movement is in line.
In my opinion, this will not become a hurreicane...... |
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