| this guy, Jeff Lindler, is a meteorologist with Harris Co Flood Control District & our Regional Coordinator for CoCoRaHS - his daily emails are routinely posted on our local weather board, thought I would share his pm thoughts today: Tropical cyclone formation likely over the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday/Saturday. Residents along the TX/LA coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans this weekend. Confidence remains low, but starting to get better model agreement Models have come into slightly better agreement today on the formation of a tropical system currently located over the SE Gulf of Mexico between SW FL and the Yucatan. Satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing in this area and NHC has raised the chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours to 30%. While there is good agreement on the actual formation of the system, there is poor agreement on where it forms and how it tracks. GFS continues to be the outlier solution showing a low developing off the LA coast and drifting E then NE across FL, this model shows the system getting caught in the trough passing across the northern plains. The GFS looks too deep with the trough and hence the E motion appears unlikely at this time. The ECMWF shows development S of The TX/LA border and then greatly deepens the system all the way down to a strong 968mb hurricane while drifting it W then WSW toward the middle TX coast. The CMC is similar to the ECMWF, but not as strong and more northward toward the upper TX coast. The NAM showing a steady NW motion then a slowing and drift toward the WNW/NW off the SW LA/SE TX coast. Heavy coordination with NHC/HPC and local WFO's this afternoon are in agreement to lean toward the ECMWF, CMC, NAM, and numerous ensemble members suggesting a low forms over the central or NW Gulf on Friday and then drifts NW this weekend possibly making landfall somewhere on the TX coast, but also just as possible to remain offshore into the middle of next week. Hard to really hang a forecast without an actual low center yet, where that center develops will be important as to where the system may track. Intensity One thing is for sure, models have really jumped upward on the intensity today with several now showing a full blown hurricane in the NW Gulf this weekend. Up to this point, the models have been keeping the system fairly broad and moderate, but now they really want to deepen it. Looking at the factors involved over the NW Gulf: Sea surface temperatures are very warm in the (86-90 degree range), upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat favorable (likely more toward the favorable side than not), however there is a large mass of dry air over TX and LA that could get entrained into the system hindering development. With all that said, you never want to leave a tropical system sitting over the hot Gulf this time of year for any period of time. Not very confident on how strong 93L may become as the models have just recently started showing this stronger trend. Overall things looks fairly favorable for development and development could be fairly quick. Will continue to stress the very slow expect storm motion and potential for several days of impacts across the NW Gulf. Impacts: For now will temper back the model intensities, but follow closely the above mentioned track reasoning and let that help guide the expected impacts. Please understand that confidence is very low and significant changes will be likely over the next 2 days. Rainfall: Will start to see moisture increase on Thursday with scattered showers on the seabreeze, then bring rainbands into the coastal areas starting Friday. Will limit the western extent of the rainfall to the US 59 corridor for now. Should confidence build that the system will in fact move more W over the weekend, significant rain chances will be needed for all areas and totals will need to be raised. Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible S of US 59 Friday-Sunday and this could really be on the conservative side. HPC progs nail the offshore area with 8-12 inches over the weekend! Tides: Position of the surface center leads to a prolonged E fetch aimed at the upper TX coast with winds gradually increasing over the northern Gulf starting late Thursday. Large long period swells will begin to arrive on the coast by midday Friday and build into the weekend. Combined effects of large waves and fetch will result in some degree of coastal water level rise. Hard to pin down right now how much and where, but prolonged nature of this event could push a lot of water toward the coast over the weekend. Winds: Gradient will tighten into the weekend, how strong and how long is still up for debate, but could see at least TS force winds over the coastal waters starting late Friday and possibly lasting into much of the weekend. For now will not spread this wind inland much due to the uncertainty in the track, but as with the rainfall forecast above, if a westward track does develop, then winds will need to be increased over much of the area. Winds will likely back to the E following the seabreeze on Thursday afternoon and then back to the ENE and NE by Friday evening. Residents along the TX and LA coasts should continue to closely monitor information on this developing tropical system. |