| Here is my local Mets mention of 93: .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE ONE THING THEY ALL GENERALLY AGREE ON IS THAT AN ORGANIZED LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE. THEY DON`T AGREE ON WHERE THE LOW WILL GO OR HOW STRONG IT WILL BECOME. THE LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS THE LOW UP INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY THEN MOVES IT VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED ITS MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION BUT TRENDED FARTHER EAST FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...A BIT STRONGER INITIALLY...THEN RETROGRADES THE LOW BACK TO TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BUILDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE (SOMETHING THE GFS DOES NOT DO). RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND FAITH IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS LOW...SO THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT FORECAST WITH THE LOW...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMETHING WE MUST CONSIDER. RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKING FLOOD IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE RAISED THE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA TO BE MORE INLINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE A HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT ANY RATE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE GULF SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 05/JG |