Re: NHC discussions
Posted by
Target on 9/1/2011, 1:52 am
I did not expect a hurricane at this point.... A few days ago I thought there was a good chance Katia would have a convective burst each night and then get dried out a bit each day or hit shear and then not curve up so fast.
It's a tough call, a few days ago I figured the odd were maybe a 45% chance of the storm being a fish, and now I put it at 55%.
In 4 days I might think Katia will be worse than Irene. I don't know.
These ridges seem to be wasting no time coming across the US and bumping into the Atlantic high.
I don't really understand why the CMC and other models want to develop little lows in the ridge in a couple days. I guess the SST's are hot, and the Sun is not as hot. (Fall starts on the 23rd of September.)
![](http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2011083112/slp5.png)
![](http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2011083118/slp7.png)
![](http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2011083112/slp2.png)
We may be at risk by two storms at nearly the same time if the models are right about a storm forming in the GOM.
![](http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2011083118/slp56.png)
![](http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/2011083112/slp24.png)
![](http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2011083112/slp7.png)
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In this thread:
NHC discussions -
jimw,
8/31/2011, 11:09 pm- Re: NHC discussions - TuffyE, 9/1/2011, 6:25 am
- Re: NHC discussions - LawKat, 9/1/2011, 12:53 am
- Re: NHC discussions - Gianmarc, 8/31/2011, 11:38 pm
- Re: NHC discussions - Target, 8/31/2011, 11:37 pm
- Re: NHC discussions - Gianmarc, 8/31/2011, 11:40 pm
- Re: NHC discussions - Target, 9/1/2011, 1:52 am
- Re: NHC discussions - Chris in Tampa, 8/31/2011, 11:35 pm
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