10 PM is out
Posted by cypresstx on 9/1/2011, 11:22 pm
those rain totals are similar to what we got with TS Allison, maybe I'm lucky it's not forecast to come to TX?  Hope everyone on the N Gulf stays safe

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020238
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY...EXPECTED TO DRENCH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

*****************************************************************************************


000
WTNT43 KNHC 020240
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...NEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT.  A SHEAR ANALYSIS
FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE GULF.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 315/2 KT.   SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THIS POSSIBILITY
IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER REFORMING FARTHER
NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWS LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 26.6N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 27.5N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 28.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 28.6N  92.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 29.2N  92.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 29.7N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H  06/0000Z 30.5N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/0000Z 31.5N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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TD 13 model looks like some child got a hold of the crayons... - AquaRN, 9/1/2011, 10:00 pm
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