Katia: Not a Fish, but a big problem
Posted by
Gambit7 on 9/2/2011, 2:27 am
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
I've been closely watching the genesis of every model I can find especially in the past 24hrs. and just about all of them have the ridge building back in... some to the point that even Florida is threatened. The westward bias is definitely in place after 3 days.
I think that since the GOM TD initialized in the models that they're now having to account for that atmospherically, along with a possible absorption into Katia (which will also compel her more to the West).
Logic dictates that if 'Lee' cant get picked up to move northerly early in its forecast period (which the models look to be realizing now) than Kat wont get picked up in time either.
Perhaps if Kat was stronger, creating more poleward bias due to Coriolis, she'd be far enough north to creep through any gaps.... but it just didnt happen. She's now a T.S. And will restrengthen just in time to ride a strengthening ridge back west in a few days that'll make it so any more impending shortwaves will just uppercut it subtropical into NE. (assuming the stream reorientates north/south again)
What say you guys? I'm not liking the setup at all. And NHC is definitely *hitting bricks on this one methinks. I think they should just come out and have an honest discussion rather than just being fence-riders. And since the NE has already taken a bad hit, they're really gonna need the extra time to prepare - even if the threat goes away. (jesus and next week is 9/11 anniversary in NYC too)
With that demon high in place feeding the storm along with 'Lee' creating a nice moist atmosphere devoid of dry air, things could get real bad with this one. Especially since she'll never see land until final landfall likely.
Past is prologue in forecasting, the pattern is in place. |
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Katia: Not a Fish, but a big problem - Gambit7, 9/2/2011, 2:27 am Post A Reply
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