| Outer rain bands from TS Lee are reaching Apalachee Bay now. Wish I could send it to Texas. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 815 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS NOW DRIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST RIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...WITH ITS OUTER BANDS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO MOVE NNW INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. LEE`S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED JUST A BIT TO 50 MPH. WHILE THESE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE PROPAGATING INLAND FROM DESTIN TO POINTS WESTWARD...MOST OF THE BANDS ARE DRYING OUT ONCE THEY REACH THE COAST IN OUR CWA. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION OVER LAND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT (WHERE THE NW 2/3 OF THE CWA IS AT 20-30% WITH THE FL PANHANDLE RANGING FROM 40-90%) LOOKS GOOD. THEREFORE...THE ONLY PLANNED UPDATES THIS CYCLE WILL BE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA...AND TO POPULATE AND MERGE IN THE LATEST WINDS AND SEAS TO THE FCST. .AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ARCHING FROM NEAR KECP INTO SRN AL WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING ENEWD THRU MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED OVER MUCH OF GA. ALTHOUGH KECP WILL SEE PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA THRU 14Z...OTHER SITES SHOULD HOLD VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KDHN WITH MVFR BY 06Z AND KTLH BY 13Z. AFTER 14Z KECP HAVE TEMPO WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND MVFR LOWERING TO IFR VSBYS. KDHN WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR OCNL IFR CIGS AFTER 15Z. PREVAILING RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS AT KECP TO BEGIN PERIOD WILL OVERSPREAD KDHN AND KTLH AFT 13Z. AFTER 06Z...SELY WINDS AT KECP WILL INCREASE INTO 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND REMAIN GUSTY...SLOWLY SPREADING TO KDHN BY MID MORN AND TO KTLH BY EARLY AFTN. .MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM LEE (WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS EVENING) REGAINS A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS ARE LIKELY FOR OUR MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS. ALSO...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... WITH EVEN A CHANCE OF SUSTAINED LOW END TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN LEGS FOR A PERIOD ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO THE EAST. FURTHERMORE...THE BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY HIGH SURF AT THE BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH 6 TO 8 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED FROM CAPE SAN BLAS WESTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY (6 FOOT SURF WAS ALREADY OBSERVED AT PANAMA CITY BEACH EARLIER TODAY) THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF...BAY...AND WALTON COUNTIES...WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ST. GEORGE AND DOG ISLANDS FOR THE TIME BEING (WITH 2-4 FT SURF HEIGHTS). BY MONDAY...BREAKING WAVES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 9 TO 11 FEET OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. |