95L Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 9/5/2011, 11:43 am
The disturbance is well organized with strong rotation and the classic spiral banding structure. In addition, convection is strong; especially on the western semicircle. As with most systems coming off Africa, moderate easterly shear tends to push the convection west and the LLC lingers behind on the eastern edge.
Unlike most of the other systems, it's embedded in a large deep layer moist environment. However, the most hindering factor is the proximity of mid-level trough to it's NW. This will begin shearing 95L. Although it will limit strengthening in the short term, think a TC forms in the comimg days. However, if the trough weakens more than expected, strengthening will resume sooner.
Track should be westward without recurvature. |
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95L Analysis - Jake, 9/5/2011, 11:43 am Post A Reply
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