| 5 Day Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024328.shtml?5day?large#contents SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS COALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. AROUND 2200 UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE AROUND 1001 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY COOLED. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE... THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08...THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY LEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST- NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION...WITH THE CENTER LIKELY EMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS ABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS INTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM. ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BE THE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 32.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 30.2N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL 72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 31.2N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/0000Z 32.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |