96L Disturbance Update
Posted by
Jake on 6/22/2012, 11:02 pm
The disturbance remains disorganized with large curved bands of convection NE of the main circulation center located near 24N - 86W and a large convective burst over the Yucatan. Overall the low-mid level center is strongest around 850mb-500mb, but remains weak near the surface.
This is the case, as winds in Cancun are SSE @ 6 mph pressure 1006mb. With a surface low in such close proximity, just to the NE , winds would be gusty from the NW. however, this is not the case. In addition, convection is lacking near the center likely due to continued W-SW shear to the W and NW or restricted. A more favorable upper pattern is to the East and S with nice fanning and curvature to the cloud pattern indicating better ventilation.
Finally, as stated in my previous discussion, development will be slow as the upper pattern favors a slow process and more of a split system with most over the strong weather on the easternside. T-S Debbie will likely form, but this system will struggle to close off on its westernside due to shear and this will keep it from from becoming too strong. Not sold on any model tracks until the steering pattern takes shape.
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96L Disturbance Update - Jake, 6/22/2012, 11:02 pm Post A Reply
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