Debbie Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 6/24/2012, 12:45 am
Debbie is a sheared system with the strongest weather on the eastern semicircle. Although the LLC has become more defined it remains exposed / naked. Any further strengthening will be minimal as the center will not be able to pull or maintain any convection. This is mostly due to an ULL in the NW GOM creating mid-upper SW shear over Debbie and injecting dryer air in her western semicircle.
The steering pattern has become alittle more clear, as a building mid level ridge north of the system will halt a prolong Northward motion. Basically, she will miss the eastern trough, as she's too far west in the central GOM.
Lastly, some slight strengthening of debbie in the coming days, as she moves poleward towards the central gulf coast and makes a gradual turn towards the WNW. Think she will move closer to the LA coast than the NHC forecast and be weaker, as the ULL / Mid level dry air will hinder her from becoming a Hurricane. These UL are hard to shake off and cause a negative affect on cyclone intensification as they disrupt the ventilation pattern, even if it pulls SW.
Note: Debbie could move inland some before turning westward. This will limit strengthening. |
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Debbie Analysis - Jake, 6/24/2012, 12:45 am Post A Reply
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