Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm
Posted by
BobbiStorm on 6/24/2012, 9:32 am
good discussion ...they have their priorities
.SHORT TERM [Today through Tuesday]... Tropical Storm Debby has a large convective burst this morning that envelopes much of the eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Pressures have been falling rapidly over the past few hours at C Tower and Buoy 42036, and the buoy had one hour of tropical storm force winds. Both observations have been showing peak winds to around 40 knots recently, so it appears that the stronger portion of Debby`s wind field is beginning to enter our coastal waters. As such, we have decided to upgrade the offshore legs of our coastal waters to a Tropical Storm Warning. We will have to monitor the northward progress of the strongest winds, as any additional expansion could require including some nearshore legs. For more details on Debby, refer to National Hurricane Center products at hurricanes.gov.
Given ongoing track uncertainties with Debby, and the fact that the strongest wind field and rain bands are located to the north and east of the center-of-circulation, people across the area should continue to monitor the latest weather information in the event of any sudden changes in Debby. In this particular case, with an asymmetric storm, it is important not to focus on the track cone, as gusty winds and heavy rain bands may extend out a few hundred miles to the north and east of the center of Debby.
The changes for our forecast for land areas were mainly related to bumping up winds at the coast slightly today, and increasing PoPs to over 70% across much of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. We fine-tuned the QPF and this gives storm totals through Tuesday from about 3-4" along the I-10 corridor, to about 8" along a line from Panama City to St. Marks, to as much as 10-12" in Gulf and Franklin Counties. The heaviest rain totals are expected to be focused within 10-20 miles of the coast due to a protracted period of enhanced coastal convergence. Given the very high PWATS in the tropical air mass enveloping Debby, very heavy rainfall rates will be possible and therefore a Flash Flood Watch has been issued through Monday. We decided against including Walton County as model guidance starts limiting QPF with NW extent inthese areas, in addition to very high FFG totals in that area. The models are also showing less mean QPF in the Suwannee River Valley, so the watch was not extended any further east than Jefferson County.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through next Sunday]... Regardless of what happens with Debby in the short term, it looks like it will be out of the area by mid week with below climo PoPs and above normal temperatures. The 00z GFS forecasts a strong upper level ridge to build across the area. In fact, with 850 mb temperatures forecast around +20C, it wouldn`t be surprising to see temperatures flirt with the 100F mark by the end of the week across some inland areas. |
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In this thread:
Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm -
alligatorob,
6/24/2012, 7:58 am- Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - alligatorob, 6/24/2012, 6:00 pm
- Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - ssherripat, 6/24/2012, 12:18 pm
- Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - sherrykaboom, 6/24/2012, 12:04 pm
- Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - alligatorob, 6/24/2012, 11:56 am
- Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - BobbiStorm, 6/24/2012, 9:29 am
- Re: Alligator Point feels like a tropical storm - Shalista, 6/24/2012, 8:34 am
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