5 p.n. discussion: "Significant change in forecast track"
Posted by
Gianmarc on 6/24/2012, 5:06 pm
000
WTNT44 KNHC 242034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT
NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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5 p.n. discussion: "Significant change in forecast track" - Gianmarc, 6/24/2012, 5:06 pm Post A Reply
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