| Bobby, The discussion talks about an ULL over SC Texas and an Anti-cyclonic circulation in the NW Gulf that should give us a good rain starting about now. I thought it might be turning into something but we will have to wait and see. We will most likely see some good rain this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow .000 FXUS64 KHGX 290948 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 415 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...IN TANDEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WILL BE THE MECHANISMS THAT PULL UP A SOUTHERN MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT 07Z RADAR KICKED INTO PRECIP-MODE AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...CAUGHT UP WITHIN THIS SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ASHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND REGION. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM SLIGHT THIS MORNING TO LIKELY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN IMPETUS TO THESE HEIGHTENED RAIN CHANCES STEMS FROM A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE...OR THE EVENTUAL FORMATION OF A BROAD SOUTHERN TEXAS CLOSED-OFF LOW BY LATE TONIGHT INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH (ITS AXIS OVER EASTERN TEXAS) BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW FALLS BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TOMORROW UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFULENT. GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWATS WILL OVERRUN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND...WITH UPPER 80 CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA EASTWARD. THE HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL OCCUR FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT BUT SOME COMMUNITIES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO THROUGH MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP AN AVERAGE HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH MAINLY FROM NORTHERN-PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE MIX. SATURDAY`S PROG SOUNDINGS DISPLAYING SATURATED COLUMNS WITH LOWER SEVERE THRESHOLD THERMODYNAMIC INDICES INDICATING THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD NOT PACK MUCH OF A PUNCH. THIS WEEKEND`S OVERCAST WILL REGULATE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPS TO THE MEAN UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F...MILD MORNINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 31 && .AVIATION... PATCHY MVFR FOG BEING REPORTED IN AREA OBS AND WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING GULF MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SE TX AS EVIDENCED BY ISO SHRA STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF. THINK THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE SITUATED WEST OF A LBX-CLL LINE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. BUT LIKE YDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISO STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING/SEABREEZE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT SURGE OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE SHOULD APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AS THIS OCCURS. ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND SAT MORNING/AFTN. 47 && .MARINE... LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD. NUDGED SEAS UP A TAD THIS WEEKEND WHEN GRADIENT IS TIGHTER AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE HIGHER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A DEEP SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 73 92 73 92 / 10 20 50 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 74 92 74 93 / 20 20 40 20 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 92 81 88 81 90 / 20 20 50 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...3147 |