The tropics according to the NHC...
Posted by Shalista on 8/9/2012, 7:46 pm
 Florence has a 10% chance of reforming vice this morning at 0%... 20% chance of the new disturbance coming off the the African Coast... 000 ABNT20 KNHC 091742 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 200 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG |
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