from HPC
Posted by cypresstx on 8/14/2012, 2:46 pm
texas looking better/wetter  :)


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 17 2012 - 12Z TUE AUG 21 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ECENS
MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS BE QUITE STABLE OVER
THE PAST FOUR CYCLES...AND SHARES MORE IN COMMON WITH THE 00Z/14
GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEFS MEAN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW AT THE MEDIUM RANGE
IS POSITIVE PNA...WITH THE POLAR FRONT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO
THE GULF STATES. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST
MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 5...A BIAS OF THE
GFS.


FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/14 GFS AND GEFS MEAN HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...NOW
INDICATING PRIMACY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER RESULTED IN THE
INTRODUCTION OF A SPOT TROPICAL LOW CREEPING UP THE ATLANTIC SIDE
OF THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH MID PERIOD. EVEN IF NO ORGANIZED
SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THE TROPICAL FEED MAY WELL INTERSECT THE EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...ENHANCING RAINFALL THERE.


CISCO


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Masters - "Watch the Gulf this wk-end" - cypresstx, 8/14/2012, 10:44 am
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