out of PR NWS....good discussion
Posted by
BobbiStorm on 8/19/2012, 8:08 am
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SJU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Salient points:
.DISCUSSION...THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. DRIER AIR...ALREADY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IS SET TO MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
BRING SOME CLEARING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL CARRYING MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH WHERE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW FROM THE EAST MAY BRING IT BACK
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS GENERATED
FROM THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA.
MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY AND HAZY. |
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94L Beginning to Breathe -
CX,
8/18/2012, 2:04 pm Post A Reply
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