Re: TS Isaac
Posted by cypresstx on 8/21/2012, 5:47 pm
HPC changed the day 6/7 graphics after consult with NHC - it was previously near the middle of the gulf coast of FL on day 7

FINAL...

SAW NO COMPELLING REASONS IN THE 12Z/21 MODEL CYCLE TO STRAY FROM
THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE. THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN THE DAYS 6 AND 7 LOW PLACEMENT WAS
THE RESULT OF THE COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


gridded marine will get everyone's attention



so it looks like it will be an eye-straining, loop-watching, blog reading, stay-up-for-the 2am kind of week ?


we need your thoughts Jim  :)


here's Masters' latest:  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

a few blurbs;

Intensity forecasts 4 - 5 days out are low in skill, though, and it would not be a surprise at all to see TD 9 struggle like so many other storms have over the past two years, and remain a tropical storm over the next five days. Conversely, rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now, as the official NHC is suggesting may happen, would also not be a surprise.

We'll have to wait another day to see where the center of TD 9 consolidates before judging which model solution is likely to be correct; reformations of the center closer to bursts of heavy thunderstorm often cause the center point to shift around in the early stages of development, leading to large changes in the forecast track many days later.
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TS Isaac - cypresstx, 8/21/2012, 4:38 pm
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