From Bryan Norcross this morning:
Posted by
Lin on 8/22/2012, 8:10 am
| Okay Florida... it's time to wake up. Isaac is getting organized and the odds are increasing that it's going to be a problem... a big enough problem that preparation is likely to be required. The exact angle of approach is still uncertain, and a slight difference changes who gets the worst of it, but most plausible future tracks show an impact on the state. (There's a chance it could miss to the east, but that appears the least likely scenario.) If the storm turns near eastern Cuba, as the American GFS computer forecast shows, the storm will impact the Middle/Upper Keys and the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area... and possibly the Tampa/Orlando area as well. (Setting up a possible nightmare scenario for Florida insurance.) This scenario would seem to limit how strong the storm could get because it would have to track over some of the Caribbean mountains, but there's still plenty of warm water between Cuba and Florida. A track farther west, however, in the direction of the European ECMWF computer forecast, the storm has impact on the west coast of the state in a big way, and perhaps the Panhandle. A hurricane on this track would seem to have an opportunity to get stronger. The bottom line, starting in the Keys immediately, it's time to begin paying attention to hurricane plans. The NHC will be deploying their full resources over the next couple of days to gather the best data, which can refine and improve the forecast... so we'll be getting the best that modern technology can provide by Friday. Stay tuned... and wake your friends up as well. |
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From Bryan Norcross this morning: - Lin, 8/22/2012, 8:10 am
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