Isaac Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/22/2012, 10:02 am
Morning visible imagery shows a maturing cyclone with a large mesoscale convective mass over the center and two large distinct convective bands, one to the W- NW and the other to the S-SE. The aforementioned bands are increasing in intensity which are signs of greater instibilty, but most notable is that they're beginning to rap into the CDO. This is extremely critical in how rapidly Isaac strengthens, as he will finally be able to tap into the strong supply of deep layer moisture south of the storm and increasing mixing ratio's near the center will mix out the dry air which has been hindering convection near the LLC.
Currently, the storm is over OHC in the 50's and 28c SST's, but later today and thereafter, these temps increase too 75-100 and SST's 29c in the eastern caribbean. In addition, slowing of the forward speed to 15mph should begin once the system crosses the lesser antilles, with further slowing in the coming days aiding in organization. Furthermore, shear is forecast to decrease as the effects of an ULL to the NE of the cyclone is replaced by an expanding upper high.
Finally, IMO the sub tropical ridge will hold Isaac's core just south of hispaniola before turning NW towards eastern cuba. My concern is the very favorable conditions Isaac will be traversing in the caribbean which will quite possibly have him reach Cat -3 status before interacting SW haiti and eastern cuba.
Note: Should the current model guidance continue in good agreement in the long term with the expected extremely favorable conditions even after day 5. We could very well have a major cane approaching FL. |
437
In this thread:
Isaac Analysis - Jake, 8/22/2012, 10:02 am Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.