| TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012 ...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 72.5W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO * THE BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD * THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD * FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT... AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... 370 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HAITI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE SOUTHERNMOST FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...2 TO 4 FT HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |