Re: Typhoons BOLAVEN & TEMBIN
Posted by
Old Style on 8/25/2012, 6:52 pm
And here is the 21Z forecast discussion for Typhoon Bolaven.
WDPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW, A 251602Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE, AND RECENT
RADAR FIX DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
AND RECENT CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY GUIDANCE. TY 16W IS IN THE
MIDST OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH THE 251602Z TRMM IMAGE
SHOWING A SECONDARY EYEWALL NOW SURROUNDING THE ORIGINAL EYE. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SECONDARY EYEWALL IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS OTHER FACTORS
SUCH AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER HONSHU.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING 72 HOUR PERIOD. TY 16W IS EXPECTED
TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THE ONGOING
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
C. TY 16W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AFTER CRESTING THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER LAND WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN |
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Typhoons BOLAVEN & TEMBIN -
hanna,
8/25/2012, 5:32 pm Post A Reply
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