Re: Gusting to 207 mph...that is unimaginable. Just posted, they are 13 hrs ahead of east coast time
Posted by hanna on 9/13/2012, 8:33 pm
From Kadena Weather.  http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/








http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/TyphTimeLine.html

http://stormadvisory.org/map/pacific/west/



WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 131821Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC 180 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE AND A 18 NM ROUND EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
IMAGERY WITH VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD CHANNEL,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT AS WELL AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW (LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF HONSHU) WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 60-70 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 17W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 70 KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY; THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 140 TO 155 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE 13/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN CHINA. IT ALSO SHOWS A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS CHINA AND THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
  A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
  B. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
24 BUT SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
INFLUENCE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE STR IS WEAKENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT WESTWARD INFLUENCE, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN S-SHAPED
TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK BASED
ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODELS. AT TAU 48, THERE IS ONLY A
65 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. STY 17W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STY
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
  C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST WITH TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
NEAR TAU 72, STY 17W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL
ACCELERATE POLEWARD, WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120.//
NNNN


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1712prog.txt

For warning text.  http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1712prog.txt

For satellite fix bulletin http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1712fix.txt

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Typhoon SANBA with winds expected up to 115 kts or 132.340mph near Kadena_AB - hanna, 9/12/2012, 1:31 pm
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