1st blizzard of the year ?
Posted by cypresstx on 10/3/2012, 7:05 am
and 96L at 80%

that exciting time of year when weather junkies are torn between the tropics & winter...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/





http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

...CNTRL/ERN ND INTO NRN MN...
 
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL
BE IMPACTING THE EXTREME UPR MS VLY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE DEEPENING LATER TODAY OVER EXTREME SERN SD AND BY EARLY THURS
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO CNTRL MN...ALONG WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING/EXPANDING MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE...ORIENTED
ESP OVER CNTRL/ERN ND AND NWRN MN. EXPECTING AN EXPANDING SHIELD
OF MDT TO HVY RAIN INITIALLY BY LATER TODAY AS THE SYS
DEEPENS...BUT SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LVL COLD AIR ADV AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE
ADVANCING SFC LOW SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN GRADUALLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURS FOR MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN ND AND INTO FAR NWRN MN. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE
UVVS/PCPN RATES WILL BECOME RATHER INTENSE OVER ESP NERN ND LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL FOSTER AN AXIS OF HVY SNOWFALL ONCE THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS...AND THEREFORE SUGGESTING SOME RAPID ACCUMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE OTHER MARGINAL BNDRY LYR TEMPS AND MILD
GROUND TEMPS.

THE MODELS SUPPORT RAPID DEEPENING ALOFT OF THE MID/UPR LVL TROF
AXIS EARLY THURS OVER ERN ND WITH THE ENERGY ATTAINING A NEG TILT
AND LEADING THE WAY FOR A STRONG MID LVL CIRC THAT SHOULD CROSS
NRN MN THROUGH THURS AFTN AND MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY FRI MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CLEAR NERN MN AND MOVE
INTO SWRN ONTARIO THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A STRONG MID LVL
DEFORMATION ZONE WITH INTENSE DEEP LYR FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS
EXPECT TO PIVOT OVER MUCH OF FAR NERN ND AND ESP NRN MN THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT. THE COMMA-HEAD SHOULD THEN SLOWLY EXIT NEWD INTO
ONTARIO ON FRI AND WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THEN...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE MOIST COLD CYC FLOW LINGERING OVER THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE. ANY PCPN OVER NWRN MN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THURS
MORNING WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NRN MN BY LATE THURS
AFTN AND EVENING AS A COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCD WITH INTENSE UVVS...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADV IN THE
BNDRY LYR WORK IN TANDEM TO COOL THE COLUMN FAVORABLY FOR SNOW.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY PIVOTING OVER THIS AREA THURS NIGHT WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO CONTINUE BEFORE THEN TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRI.
REGARDING AMTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLD
HEAVIER AMTS ARE EXPECTED OVER A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NERN ND AND
ACROSS NRN MN...WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS PERHAPS CLOSE TO A FOOT OR
SO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG AN AXIS BETWEEN ROSSEAU AND
INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

try telling that ND/MN farmer that "Athena" will be hitting their area and they will think you're insane...
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1st blizzard of the year ? - cypresstx, 10/3/2012, 7:05 am
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