| looks like they injected a little "winter storm naming" jab in there... love those Cisco dicos... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 313 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012 ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND UNSETTLED. FINAL... UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST. CISCO |