latest hpc advisory
Posted by cypresstx on 10/30/2012, 8:33 am
| http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POST TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 77.0W ABOUT 15 MILES...24 KM...E OF YORK PENNSYLVANIA. ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...W OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...INCLUDING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...25 KPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH REDUCED FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A TURN NORTH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS ------- WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN SUBSIDING...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE COULD STILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT DELMARVA PENINSULA AND DELAWARE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT JERSEY SHORE NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST EXPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS --------------- SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM EDT ...WASHINGTON DC... WASHINGTON/NATIONAL 4.11 ...DELAWARE... MILFORD 9.55 DOVER AFB 8.46 WILMINGTON ARPT 4.17 ...MASSACHUSETTS... EAST MILTON 2.87 FITCHBURG (FIT) 2.32 NANTUCKET MEMORIAL ARPT 2.00 BEDFORD/HANSCOM FIELD 2.00 NORWOOD MEMORIAL ARPT 1.84 WORCESTER MUNI ARPT 1.67 ...MARYLAND... PATUXENT RIVER NAS 7.90 OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 7.16 SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 7.10 BALTIMORE SCIENCE CENTER 6.40 ANNAPOLIS - US NAVAL ACADEMY 6.29 1 NE PIMLICO 6.44 BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL ARPT 5.93 HAGERSTOWN RGNL ARPT 4.11 ...NORTH CAROLINA... HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 6.26 ELIZABETH CITY MUNI ARPT 3.46 NEW BERN/CRAVEN CO. ARPT 2.34 ...NEW HAMPSHIRE... JAFFREY MUNI ARPT 3.63 NASHUA/BOIRE FIELD 1.98 MOUNT WASHINGTON 1.87 MANCHESTER AIRPARK 1.56 ...NEW JERSEY... WILDWOOD CREST 11.62 WEST CAPE MAY 9.37 WOODBINE 7.82 ATLANTIC CITY 8.01 ESTELLE HARBOR 6.57 MILLVILLE MUNI ARPT 5.28 ...NEW YORK... NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 2.69 JAMESTOWN AIRPORT 2.46 ROCHESTER/MONROE CO. ARPT 2.19 DANSVILLE MUNI ARPT 2.13 DUNKIRK AIRPORT 2.06 PENN YAN AIRPORT 1.74 BUFFALO WFO 1.46 ...OHIO... CLEVELAND-HOPKINS INTL ARPT 3.14 ASHTABULA CO. ARPT 2.77 YOUNGSTOWN MUNI ARPT 2.54 WOOSTER/WAYNE CO. ARPT 2.46 LORAIN/ELYRIA 2.42 AKRON/FULTON INTL ARPT 2.19 NEW PHILADELPHIA/CLEVER FIELD 2.04 AKRON-CANTON RGNL ARPT 2.04 MANSFIELD/LAHM MUNI ARPT 1.85 ZANESVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.53 CLEVELAND/BURKE LAKEFRONT 1.51 ...PENNSYLVANIA... LIGONIER 3.62 YORK ARPT 3.27 JOHNSTOWN/CAMBRIA CO. ARPT 3.22 ERIE INTL ARPT 3.01 CONNELLSVILLE 2.98 DU BOIS-JEFFERSON COUNTY ARPT 2.95 WALTERSBURG 2.87 CLEARFIELD-LAWRENCE ARPT 2.40 PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 2.36 ALTOONA/BLAIR CO. ARPT 2.36 PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHENY CO. ARPT 2.35 BUTLER CO. AIRPORT 2.35 READING/SPAATZ FIELD 2.32 PITTSBURGH INTL ARPT 2.32 POTTSTOWN LIMERICK ARPT 2.29 LANCASTER AIRPORT 2.29 MIDDLETOWN/OLMSTED 2.28 HARRISBURG/CAPITAL CITY ARPT 2.20 PHILADELPHIA/NE PHIL. ARPT 1.93 ...RHODE ISLAND... PAWTUCKET/NORTH CENTRAL ST ARPT 1.32 ...VIRGINIA... OCEANA NAS/SOUCEK 9.54 WALLOPS ISLAND 8.40 PURCELLVILLE 7.89 NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INL AP 7.31 LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON 7.17 FORT EUSTIS/FELKER 6.71 NORFOLK INTL ARPT 5.91 WASHINGTON/DULLES 4.78 WEST POINT 4.15 NORFOLK NAS 3.29 WAKEFIELD MUNI ARPT 2.92 QUANTICO MCAF 2.75 RICHMOND 2.39 ...WEST VIRGINIA... MORGANTOWN/HART FIELD 2.95 SPRINGFIELD 2.77 PARKERSBURG/WILSON 2.01 HUNTINGTON/TRI-STATE ARPT 1.98 WHEELING/OHIO CO. ARPT 1.88 MARTINSBURG RGNL ARPT 1.73 ELKINS/RANDOLPH FIELD 1.63 SNOWFALL TOTALS --------------- ...NORTH CAROLINA... 6 N BAKERSVILLE 8 INCHES 6 NW LANSING 5 INCHES 4 NW FAUST 6 INCHES ...PENNSYLVANIA... MOUNT DAVIS 9 INCHES ...VIRGINIA... 1 E TAZEWELL 5 INCHES ...WEST VIRGINIA... BOWDEN 14 INCHES CANVAS 12 INCHES 2 S COAL CITY 12 INCHES SUMMERSVILLE 10 INCHES ELKINS 7 INCHES 1 E KITZMILLER 6 INCHES 1 S BLUEFIELD 6 INCHES WIND GUSTS --------------- ISLIP NY 90 MPH 2 N TOMPKINSVILLE NJ 90 MPH SURF CITY NJ 89 MPH TUCKERTON NJ 88 MPH 1 N MONTCLAIR NJ 88 MPH PLUM ISLAND NY 84 MPH CUTTYHUNK MA 83 MPH GROTON CT 76 MPH HARVEY CEDARS NJ 75 MPH NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. PETERSEN FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 30/0900Z 40.5N 77.0W POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12HR VT 30/1800Z 40.6N 78.5W POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 31/0600Z 41.3N 79.0W POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 31/1800Z 44.1N 77.6W POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 01/0600Z 47.0N 76.9W POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 02/0600Z ABSORBED  River Forecast Center http://water.weather.gov/ahps/region_forecast.php?rfc=marfc |
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- nhc still doing briefings - cypresstx, 10/30/2012, 8:47 am
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