| Forecast Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215509.shtml?3day?large#contents Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/01L_floater.html TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 86.5W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURDAY AND THAT GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN http://hurricanes.gov/ |