Andrea at 60 mph at 5am EDT on June 6th
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/6/2013, 5:13 am
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO INDIAN
PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA
NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATER TODAY AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT
FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE





TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
MODELS.  

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 27.0N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 32.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  07/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
48H  08/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  09/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  10/0600Z 46.5N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z 52.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
300
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Andrea at 60 mph at 5am EDT on June 6th - Chris in Tampa, 6/6/2013, 5:13 am
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