Re: Yellow Circle in the SW Caribbean - 10% for now - where's it headed?
Posted by
Skip Wiley on 6/16/2013, 11:18 am
This is from Mark Sudduth http://hurricanetrack.com/2013/06/16/nhc-monitoring-tropical-wave-in-western-caribbean-sea/
Mark Sudduth | June 16, 2013 No comments
NHC monitoring tropical wave in western Caribbean Sea
This tropical wave may develop next week in the Bay of Campeche
Just when it looked like things would remain quiet for a while, things change. The NHC is watching an area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a tropical wave, as it moves slowly through the western Caribbean.
As of this morning, the NHC was giving the area a 20% chance of developing over the next 48 hours. In looking at satellite images of the region, there is definitely an increase in deep convection associated with the system.
Water temps in the area are plenty warm but vertical wind shear, the difference in wind speed with height, is running above average right now. This means that upper level conditions are not quite there yet to allow for much development. However, the NHC notes that conditions may improve over the next few days as the tropical wave moves over Central America.
Global computer models are not too ambitious about development though the GFS in particular does show a well defined low pressure area in the southern Bay of Campeche within three to four days. It is not unusual for tropical waves to develop in this region fairly quickly. There is something about the make-up of the area that seems to foster small but quick growing tropical cyclones.
Right now the main impact will be heavy rains spreading across the western Caribbean in to Central America. Early next week, it is possible that we will see a tropical storm form in the Bay of Campeche and so interests in that region should pay close attention to this developing situation.
The weather pattern at present does not favor this system coming north enough to affect the United States. This looks to be an issue for areas along the southern Yucatan and in to the Bay of Campeche next week.
I'll post more in this system tomorrow morning.
M. Sudduth
On a side note I notice that one of the sites I used to frequent, Crown Weather is now charging. http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=7327
I guess this is becoming the trend. I think the age of free weather blogs is coming to an end...
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