Orange Circle - 30%
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/1/2013, 8:20 pm
I can't believe this thing is still around. I thought this would develop days ago, but at this point this thing is nuts.
See WV:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/91L_floater.html
I see the dot, on WV, where they position the center:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=91&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1
But I also see the ULL on water vapor. At this point, it would be hilarious if it just became a depression. It looks better on visible, but aside from that, it really does look like a long shot. With that said, it almost seems like by the end of August we'll probably still be talking about Dorian doing laps around the basin. It just won't die. Twice it has been deactivated from the ATCF system! Once as Dorian and once as invest 91L. Recon does go out tomorrow, and I'll go ahead and add like the NHC likes to do... if necessary.
By the way, NASA's image loops no longer use Java:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
They are in JavaScript now. I don't have Java installed on my computer any more for security, so I can finally have NASA's loops again! My site has a viewer here that is a little easier to use. (direct link to 30 frame visible loop of Dorian/Remnants of Dorian/91L/ULL, although it is getting dark now)
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
FORECASTER BLAKE" |
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