Anaylsis of 92L
Posted by
Shalista on 8/14/2013, 6:18 pm
So my usual website are back up and I took at look at things that are in play and it looks like my assumptions from last week are correct, invest 92L looks like it will take a trek into Mexico based on the current steering currents which I shall display below to show...
Steering Layer 700-850mb - West Atlantic

Steering Layer 250-850mb - West Atlantic

Not too much of a difference, most of steering winds put it into Mexico.
Now for the shear forecast...

Shear is decreasing in the area of 92L which will allow it to become a TC, as it nears the Yucatan however, the shear will be a factor of a TC being short lived, provided the direction it goes, should it cross the Yucatan then it will enter the Bay of Campeche which again has a low shear factor. Based on these factors, I belive that what could become Erin will end up into the Mexican coastline. |
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