| It's like it's active at the same time it's not active. Recon starts tomorrow on 97L if needed: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/97L_floater.html Air Force and NASA. 98L is now coming off Africa: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/index.htm And something in the NW Carib may move into the Bay of Campeche and possibly pull another Fernand if it is over water. Various Atlantic satellite imagery: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html It's been an East Pacific year so far, even into the Central Pacific: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html Seems like things hold off until over there. Lots of blobs. "TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 3. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAS MOVED OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=etwo FORECASTER STEWART" http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml "NOUS42 KNHC 021419 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1015 AM EDT MON 02 SEPTEMBER 2013 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013 TCPOD NUMBER.....13-093 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 03/2100Z B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST C. 03/1500Z D. 16.0N 63.0W E. 03/2030Z TO 03/2330Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION @ 04/2100Z NEAR 19N 67W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARKS: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM A. NASA 871 TAKE-OFF: 03/1100Z B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L- C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1100Z, 03 SEP D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M E. IP: 1500Z, 03 SEP; 25.0 N, 68.0 W F. EP: 0600Z, 4 SEPT; 25.0 N, 68.0 W G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 04 SEPT I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF TD CIRCULATION IN BOX BOUNDED BY 25.0N 68.0W 17.0N 68.0W, 14.0N 55.0W, 19.0N 52.0W FOLLOWED BY BUTTERFLY WITHIN REGION OF CONVECTION ~ 200 NM RADIUS FROM 18.0N 67.5W 4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- BACK TO BACK GH MISSIONS: A. NA871 LANDING, 1100 Z, 04 SEP B. NA872 TAKE OFF 1500Z, 04 SEP II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE." http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |