Re: 07L.GABRIELLE
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/4/2013, 10:34 pm
The 8pm best track data, which usually comes out about half an hour later from the NHC (using a system designed by NRL), often reflects what they do at 11pm. It's not technically official, although if they don't change their mind and lower the best track data after a very short period, you can almost count on the upgrade not being a mistake. (or a lot of sites would then be wrong) They could further change the wind speeds or other data at any time, but once they assign a name or upgrade something from an invest to a depression, it is extremely rare for them to go back and change it. It has happened with an invest being upgraded to a depression before, though I can't recall if they ever accidentally gave something a name in the best track data, or more likely changed their mind, and then took it back.
Meanwhile, that disturbance to the NE of Gabrielle has a 10% chance of development. Now that would be interesting to see. Also, in case anyone missed it, there is a new hidden circle over Africa. (They started coverage at 20% in five days at 2pm.) Currently 20% chance in five days, although they have not had much luck with the African waves this year. Then again, no one has.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
FORECASTER BRENNAN |
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07L.GABRIELLE -
hanna,
9/4/2013, 9:50 pm Post A Reply
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