| "SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISCUSSION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE... LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED...AND DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 2. UPDATED...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY MONDAY REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BRENNAN" From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Satellite: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/WESTERNAFRICA/index.htm |