no hurricane yet !
Posted by cypresstx on 9/10/2013, 11:19 am
I would have lost that bet...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HUMBERTO

still forecasting a hurricane today, but stay tuned...



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  27.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  27.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.3N  28.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.6N  29.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 101434
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...
AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE
STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS
SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER
BAND OF CONVECTION.  IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED A MOTION OF 295/8 KT...BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING
AZORES HIGH TO THE NORTH.  TWO DEEP-LAYERED LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTH AFRICA...SHOULD STEER HUMBERTO
NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
NORTH OF HUMBERTO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WERE
REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

ONCE THE INNER CORE OF HUMBERTO REORGANIZES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE STORM REACHES A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HUMBERTO
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.6N  27.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 15.3N  28.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 16.6N  29.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 18.5N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 20.5N  29.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  13/1200Z 23.5N  31.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  14/1200Z 24.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 25.0N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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no hurricane yet ! - cypresstx, 9/10/2013, 11:19 am
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