| It was starting to look like Bermuda would miss a lot of it but then it developed right back over the island. Radar: http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/07L_floater.html Good thing shear was high. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 55 55 56 57 64 65 52 33 22 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 55 55 56 57 64 65 45 26 16 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 54 56 58 59 61 62 58 46 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 19 21 27 27 22 25 36 64 84 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 0 -3 -3 -2 1 10 4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 235 254 253 247 270 270 260 196 204 223 248 264 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.1 23.0 16.9 8.1 9.9 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 134 132 131 128 130 127 96 78 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 115 111 108 107 105 108 107 86 75 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.5 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 43 41 44 45 45 45 46 50 55 53 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 13 13 11 11 10 16 21 17 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -65 -73 -64 -79 -76 -72 7 92 109 2 8 -17 200 MB DIV -36 -17 -23 -3 15 2 24 52 91 66 49 1 0 700-850 TADV 12 6 5 4 3 1 6 14 9 10 4 -31 37 LAND (KM) 1149 1114 1083 1044 1006 889 739 584 299 38 190 677 1116 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.1 33.5 34.6 36.0 38.1 41.2 46.0 52.0 55.8 57.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.7 64.7 65.0 65.2 65.7 66.0 65.4 63.6 59.4 52.8 46.4 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 6 9 14 22 33 32 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 18 20 22 22 17 27 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -1. 4. 0. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 19. 20. 7. -12. -23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) |