| It was hard to ignore the organization. They even explain as such in the discussion. But three hours! The interesting thing will be if they update the best track data, which I guess they probably will. As of now, best track data at 2am is a tropical storm and at 8am it will be a hurricane. So, temporarily it could look as though we did tie the record, although given that they say they could have gone with 75mph at 2am, I guess eventually it will probably be updated. Plus, technically Gustav was not a hurricane at 5am. But let's look back at how close it was!!! Because it was VERY close. Even closer than it appears. HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013 CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT. HUMBERTO HAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. IN A FEW DAYS... ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL CLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS LIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER STOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. WITH HUMBERTO BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE TO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.0N 28.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 17.2N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 19.0N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 20.9N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 23.8N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 24.2N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Grrrrrr over Dvorak. SAB came in with 3.5 again at 5:45Z which is why it was kept at a tropical storm at 2am. Keep in mind TAFB was at 4.0, a hurricane, earlier. Humberto's pressure is estimated at 992mb. Let's take a look at Gustav in 2002 shall we... First, the 5am... ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/21. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. GUSTAV IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT A 60 KNOT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO ESTIMATES. THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE. BUOY 44004 IS DIRECTLY IN THE STORMS PATH AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KNOW IF GUSTAV HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH FROM THIS BUOYS WIND OBSERVATIONS. GUSTAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND ONLY HAS 12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER. ON THE OUTBOUND LEG...IT REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CDO AREA. THE DROPSONDE DATA IS NOT YET AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 MB MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT...GUSTAV MIGHT BE A HURRICANE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 37.4N 72.0W 60 KTS 12HR VT 11/1800Z 39.7N 67.5W 65 KTS 24HR VT 12/0600Z 44.5N 61.2W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 12/1800Z 49.3N 56.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 13/0600Z 52.5N 52.5W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/0600Z 57.5N 52.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES!!!!!!! They had recon available, so they cheated!!! Well, they kind of had recon available, but they didn't. They were waiting! And those exact estimates. Where does that sound familiar? Back to the present, and back to 5pm yesterday for Humberto: "DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT... RESPECTIVELY." And then at 11pm: "DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS...AVERAGING AT 60 KT...WHILE ADT AND CIMSS AMSU SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE." Now back to 2002... And the pressure!?! Uhhhhh. And teasing us with it "MIGHT BE A HURRICANE"!?! Now let's fast forward to the discussion 6 hours later... where we get to... "JUST AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY"... ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002 JUST AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 80 KT WINDS AT 850 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE 975 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...GUSTAV IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. WHILE LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THIS DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/20. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTAV SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24-36 HR...THEN SLOW AND TURN LEFT ONCE IT REACHES THE LABRADOR SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 38.6N 69.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 12/0000Z 42.4N 64.8W 65 KTS 24HR VT 12/1200Z 47.2N 59.5W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 13/0000Z 51.5N 54.6W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 13/1200Z 54.7N 52.5W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/1200Z 60.0N 56.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL Oh yes, it was a hurricane. Confirmed by recon. Forget the satellite estimates. The CDO was not quite as defined perhaps at it was at 11am compared to 5am perhaps, and in the end the best track data was not updated for Gustav at 2am that morning. So... even though the basis for upgrading would have worked at 5am it would seem at the time, the best track was a tropical storm at 2am and a hurricane at 8am's best track. Where does that seem familiar? Back to the present. Upon thinking about it further, I could see where we might have tied the record. Best track data can be adjusted. Or not. Although, there would also kinda be a footnote next to Humerto if the best track data was not updated and Gustav and Humberto always had the 8am best track position as when it first became a hurricane. Humberto was declared a hurricane at the 5am advisory and Gustav was not. Humberto's winds at the surface may not have been hurricane force yet, but we'll never know otherwise. So it looks like 2013 ends up being in second place for the latest formation of the first Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era after 2002's Gustav. Or, maybe it will tie with the aforementioned kinda, sorta footnote, although best track data is what is the official record in the end. But I'll still feel cheated, lol. I think I'll go type a nicer version of this post for my Facebook page. And now back to regularly scheduled programming... How about 93L. 30% chance in 48 hours, 70% in 5 days, as of 2am on Wednesday, but an impressive blob on floater and those chances could be increased at 8am: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/93L_floater.html The other two this year waited until the other side of the Yucatan, but this one seems to be in more of a hurry. |