| Could become the second hurricane of the season: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?5day?large#contents Although rainfall right now is the very major concern. TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0000Z 19.2N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND INGRID STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 95.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA TO A HURRICANE WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN http://hurricanes.gov/ |