NHC Discussion
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/14/2013, 10:54 am
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS
INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON
THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES
PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO
MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD
TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL
MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO
VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA |
94
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