Re: Another chance of development from something to move across Yucatan into Bay of Campeche
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/16/2013, 10:37 pm
I didn't even notice this was 95L now.

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/95L_floater.html

I do see some of the models sort of doing something with this, or maybe you were right Ingrid loops back? Or maybe a combination of both? It looks like a mess of moisture that could perhaps come across the Gulf coast somewhere.

The Canadian even has whatever it is tracing part of the coast of Texas, Louisiana and into the panhandle of Florida. Rain doesn't seem to look that promising for Texas I don't think, at least not a lot.

Nothing looks strong at the moment while in the Gulf.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I just took a look at Jeff Masters blog and he talks about it briefly (odds are up since that post):
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2524

"An area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean will move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by late this week. NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook. Moisture from the disturbance is likely to stream northeastwards across the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, and the Western Bahamas during the period 7 - 14 days from now, bringing heavy rainfall."

And then he talks about the rest of the season.

"The tropical Atlantic will be dominated by dry air this week, and the models are not showing any development from new African tropical waves during the coming week. With the African monsoon now beginning to wane, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to be in a phase that will bring sinking air to the tropical Atlantic during the remainder of September, the Cape Verde hurricane season is likely over; I give only a 30% chance that we will see a tropical storm develop between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa during the remainder of hurricane season. However, we will likely get several more tropical storms forming in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or waters near the Bahamas during the remainder of the season."
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Another chance of development from something to move across Yucatan into Bay of Campeche - Chris in Tampa, 9/16/2013, 9:21 pm
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