Super Tropical Cyclone Phailinhas still a cat 5, 130kts/149.601mph
Posted by hanna on 10/12/2013, 8:31 am



WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  120600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 85.8E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 85.8E
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  121800Z --- 19.4N 84.5E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  130600Z --- 20.9N 83.5E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  131800Z --- 22.6N 82.6E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
OF THE SYSTEM. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND SUPPORTS THE RECENT DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR TC
02B. THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION OF
INDIA WITHIN THE NEXT 8 TO 10 HOURS. THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED
AND SYMMETRIC, BUT HAS RECENTLY THINNED FROM THE OUTER PERIMETER OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE UNDERGOING THE INITIAL PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, BUT
IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETE THE PROCESS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 02B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A STEADY
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE STR. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST, THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL ERODE DUE TO
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, AND WILL BE FULLY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

93
In this thread:
02B.PHAILIN to be a Super Typhoon Cat 5 - hanna, 10/10/2013, 11:36 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.